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Coalition maths

According to Andrew Rawnsley, a hung parliament is quite a plausible outcome of the 2015 election. But how likely is it really compared to the 2010 election?

In 2010, a number of factors made a hung parliament a very likely outcome. The Conservatives were in the ascendant, but due to the geographical spread of their voters they required a larger poll lead than Labour in order to secure a majority. Using the Electoral Calculus model we can estimate the leads Labour and the Conservatives would have required to get a majority:


LabourConservativeConservative leadOutcome2839+11Con majority 62938+9Hung - Con short 113037+7Hung - Con short 233136+5Hung - Con short 403235+3Hung - Lab short 373334+1Hung - Lab short 243433-1Hung - Lab short 153532-3Lab majority 6
In the end, the Conservative lead was seven points and so they had to go into coalition with the Lib Dems. The Tories have since attempted to manipulate the electoral boundaries to benefit themselves, but the Lib Dems have said they wil…