Tomsk79

On 7th September last year, YouGov published a poll putting Yes in the lead in the Scottish independence referendum, and so kicked off a year of political wackiness that will almost certainly end in Jeremy Corbyn being elected Labour leader this 12th September. Hands up who predicted that? While the eventual referendum result went the other way, the poll was enough to provoke the panicked "vow", followed by the notorious tone-deaf Cameron speech in the wake of victory that did so much to cement the SNP's support. Then Labour wipeout in Scotland and a Tory majority, each a bigger surprise than the last. We should have guessed that Labour's leadership election would not be the dispiriting snoozefest it initially promised to be. In the wake of Miliband's defeat, all 3 mainstream candidates vied to cosy up as much as possible to business, declare their undying love of "aspiration", and drop as many leftish policies as they could get awa

Just when you thought it was safe to check the mail... Yes, the Lib Dems are back in the game! And there's a proper old-fashioned dodgy bar chart on the back to prove it: I'm impressed that Leech and co are still up for a fight, but the chances of them overturning Labour here are  zero for as long as Labour remain in opposition. I do think the Lib Dems will recover, particularly if Tim Farron leads them back to a Kennedy-style position on the political spectrum, but their recovery won't start here. So this will definitely absolutely be the last piece of political literature I post up. PS: Slightly embarrassed that Leech has got back in touch before I got round to writing my very important reflections on being a stay-at-home Dad. I blame the pressure of no longer being a stay-at-home Dad.

Withington was a very comfortable win for Jeff Smith: Labour: 54% Lib Dem: 24% Conservative: 10% Green: 8% UKIP: 4% Mysterious Independent: 0.1% The outcome was remarkably close to Ashcroft's poll from almost a year ago. If that was a true snapshot then the Lib Dems' impressive campaign was worth all of 2% extra on their vote. It appears their famous incumbency bonus vanished this time, in line with the many other Lib Dem losses around the country. The Predict-o-Matic 5000 clearly requires some adjustment. The local results are also out, more or less mirroring the parliamentary vote, although locally the Greens were almost level with the Lib Dems (this is actually an improvement in the Lib Dem position from last year). So with a Labour majority of almost 15,000, it's fair to say we no longer live in a marginal. The only question left is where to move to in time for 2020?

Lest we forget that it's polling day today, the Lib Dems got up early to remind us: The scan cannot adequately convey the sheer size and weight of this greeting. It was impossible to see the hallway beneath it. If the election were decided purely on last day polling reminder card area, the Lib Dems would be odds on for a landslide. The Labour effort looked a bit feeble in comparison: Still, the same quality card stock. The boat is being pushed out by both teams. And Labour even came to my door to ask how I'd voted. So what was the result of all these months of persuasion? I went for Jeff Smith. John Leech was a good MP with a great voting record and I wouldn't be unhappy if he were returned to parliament, but I was put off by his attacks on Labour's economic record and plans. Ultimately I voted for those plans. In the local elections I voted Lib Dem, as a kind of oblique protest against first past the post . It is unhealthy for all of Manchester&#

Good old South Manchester News has hit the printing presses again just in time for the election. Well, it's sympathies are less obvious than the national newspapers I suppose. The Leech campaign is really not doing any favours with me by attacking Labour's entirely sensible if not timid spending plans as "reckless". But never fear, because the man himself has sent us a handwritten note in a final plea for our votes: Having noted the "P.S."s at the bottom of all his letters, I'm not sure Leech has got the hang of them. They always reiterate what he's already written, when they should say something in passing like: P.S. I've heard there's free ice cream at the polling station today or P.S. Would you stop your dog barking at our canvassers? Labour go for a more conventional leaflet: Nothing new to report here. I'm running out of things to say about these leaflets, so just as well it's polling day tomorrow