Tomsk79

With barely more than a week to go before election day the mayoral race has reached fever pitch, with upwards of one leaflet delivered already this week. And it's the Lib Dems again: South Manchester's Focus is clearly turning towards the general election, alongside John Leech's online announcement that he will run again in Withington . But there's still space to mention Jane Brophy at the bottom of the page, complete with Leech's endorsement. Focus makes a big claim that it's the Lib Dems or Labour to win on May 4th, and I have to admit I don't actually have any instinct about who will end up in the top two alongside Burnham. As far as I'm aware there have been no polls to help out on this point. The most straightforward estimate I can think of is a simple sum of all the votes in the 2015 general election across the 27 GM constituencies, which gives you the following totals: Labour: 551,119 Conservative: 315,537 UKIP: 192,470 Lib Dem: 85,1

Mrs Tomsk directs me to this slick ad from the pride of Trafford: Is he insinuating that Big Andy's not a Manc? Even after the exclusive interview with the Burnham for Mayor gazette put the record straight?

So it seems we can't even have a nice relaxed provincial vote without Westminster demanding to be the centre of attention. Poor show! Still, this blog will stay within its remit right up until the 4th May, if only because an election which the Tories surely can't win is so much more pleasant than the feeling of impending doom coming from the other one. The official candidate information arrived through our letterbox today ( it's also available online , in case you're wondering why my scanning skills have suddenly improved). Eight people are standing as follows: The first thing that jumps out of this list is that Withington's own Mysterious Independent is standing again! And not only that, he's opted to remain Mysterious by not submitting an official Election Address. Fair play to him. He's joined by a second Mysterious Independent, Mohammed Aslam, because of course Salford has to have its own Mysterious Independent. UKIP's Shneur Odze is the

It's certainly been a slow start to the election spamming this time round, almost as if the result is a foregone conclusion. But never fear: Big Andy has ridden into town. Points are immediately deducted for posting a leaflet that is much too large to be easily scanned. On the other hand, an equal number of points are awarded for sneaking Tony Wilson quotes into the text. Inside, there are detailed assurances that Burnham is not a Scouser (read and learn, national political correspondents), a soup ç on of appealing policies and a healthy amount of London-bashing. If there's one skill the mayor of GM must have, it's whining about Westminster until they cough up more cash. And of course it all helps dissociate him from his long time spent in the dreaded South. Overall the focus could hardly be more different to Jane Brophy: only a single passing mention of the referendum with the emphasis very much on local issues and Burnham's own high level of politica

OK, so a while back I might have said that I would definitely absolutely not post any more political literature on to this site, but we all know pledges are made to be broken. How could I resist the lure of the first ever Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? Combined Authorities! Supplementary Vote! Brexit Culture Wars! It's got it all. Welcome back first of all to the fiercely independent South Manchester News, which chooses to splash on Corbyn's inept opposition to the Brexit process : Sadly the News was unable to find sufficient space to mention that our local Labour MP voted against triggering Article 50 , but to be fair if I was the editor I'd play up the Corbyn angle for all it was worth as well. Along with the SMN came the first piece of mayoral campaign literature we've received, for the Lib Dem candidate Jane Brophy. She is a Trafford councillor whose name is already familiar to me as the runner up in the safe Tory seat of Altrincham & Sale West i

Yes really. But don't worry, this blog has not renounced its political values. Let me explain... It's only been a few months since the EU referendum, but already it's clear that it has catalysed a fundamental realignment of English politics (just as Scotland was realigned by the independence referendum). First consider how voters of different parties divided on referendum day: (Source: Lord Ashcroft Polls ) One thing that leaps out immediately from this breakdown is that the major reason for Leave's victory was David Cameron's failure to bring his own voters with him. Labour voters on the other hand broke for Remain in much the same proportion as the resolutely pro-EU SNP, belying the idea that Corbyn's half-hearted campaigning was to blame for the result. The figures for the smaller parties were no surprise, although with the notable exception of UKIP there were substantial minorities opposed to the party line in each case. Now compare with a YouGov

  With paternity leave now a distant memory it's time to wrap up this series, but not before my promised roundup of the social whirlwind that is the Manchester baby activity scene. An important skill when on leave is coming up with good reasons to leave the house every day, without which you would both surely go mad. As with many aspects of leave I had Mrs Tomsk's wealth of experience to draw on here, including a number of classes she had tried out which then passed on to me. The first of these was Baby Moves at the National Football Museum, a very laid back session for babies no older than one. It was friendly and tranquil with plinky plonky music and lots of gentle games that made it feel like a meditation class (at least for me). It was also one of the clearest ways to see her develop as she got more mobile and better able to explore the room on her own, and interact more with the bits and bobs they put out to play with, some of which nodded to the venue such as